Extreme Temperature Risk Analysis

Jacksonville is experiencing rising climate pressures from both extreme heat and cold.

Since 1970, average summer temperatures have climbed more than 1°F, and projections suggest the city could see up to 80 days annually above 100°F by 2050. Cold snaps, though less frequent, continue to challenge infrastructure and public health in a region unaccustomed to freezing conditions. Together, these extremes stress energy systems, transportation networks, healthcare facilities, housing, and emergency services, often with cascading effects.

The Regional Catastrophic Preparedness Grant Program funds this effort, advancing FEMA’s strategic priorities of housing, equity, climate resilience, and readiness. Weston & Sampson, in partnership with The Olson Group, is leading a risk analysis study to evaluate how escalating temperature extremes affect Jacksonville’s critical and social infrastructure. Particular attention is given to those most at risk: disadvantaged communities, low-income households, older adults, children, people with disabilities or chronic health conditions, and those experiencing housing insecurity. The study combines technical analysis and community engagement, including:
• Infrastructure assessment to identify vulnerabilities and failure points such as road buckling, power outages, and grid strain.
• Social vulnerability analysis integrating census and health data with infrastructure risk to create neighborhood-level risk profiles.
• Workshops and surveys engaging residents, local leaders, and critical infrastructure partners, including utilities, healthcare, housing, transportation, military, and aviation sectors.
• Emergency Operations Center planning to define activation thresholds and improve preparedness for temperature-driven emergencies.

Expected outcomes include GIS risk maps, community profiles, and an interactive hub with real-time risk information and emergency resources. The project will develop mitigation strategies, policy recommendations, and a case study to guide communities facing climate extremes.